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1/15/2021 16:01pm
Bet On It: New Jersey handle ranks highest in 2020

Welcome to latest edition of "Bet On It," where The Fly looks at news and activity in the sports betting and iGaming space.

SECTOR NEWS: This week, Las Vegas Sands (LVS) issued the following statement announcing the death of company chairman and CEO Sheldon Adelson: "Our founder and visionary leader, Sheldon G. Adelson, passed away last night at the age of 87 from complications related to treatment for non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma... His achievements in the integrated resort and hospitality industry are well-documented. In Las Vegas, Macao and Singapore, Mr. Adelson's vision for integrated resorts transformed the industry, changed the trajectory of the company he founded, and reimagined tourism in each of those markets. His impact on the industry will be everlasting... Adelson was adamant that our Team Members across the globe continue to receive full pay and health care benefits even while the buildings in which they worked were closed...The Adelson family asks for privacy as they mourn Mr. Adelson's passing. A funeral will be held in Israel, the birthplace of Dr. Miriam Adelson, with plans for a memorial service held in Las Vegas to be announced at a later date."

ANALYST ACTION: Truist analyst Barry Jonas raised the firm's price target on a number of sports betting and iGaming stocks as part of a broad industry note. The industry's Q4 results may be soft, but the management commentary will focus on vaccine distribution that should ramp over the next few quarters, opening up a "tidal wave of pent-up demand for in-person social engagement and experiences," the analyst told investors.  Companies with increased price targets include Scientific Games (SGMS), Boyd Gaming (BYD), Penn National (PENN), Caesars (CZR) and DraftKings (DKNG). Of note, Jonas raised his target on Penn National to $120 from $85.

KeyBanc analyst Brett Andress also focused on the gaming industry with initiations of coverage of companies in the sector. He initiated coverage of Caesars with an Overweight rating and $89 price target, stating that he sees Caesars as the name with most long-term upside potential in the gaming group. Andress initiated coverage of Boyd Gaming with an Overweight rating and $58 price target, saying Boyd offers one of the more unique risk/rewards around OSB/iGaming via its FanDuel (PDYPY) stake and favorable regional/LV locals "barbell" mix. Also, Churchill Downs (CHDN) was initiated with an Overweight rating and $239 price target. The analyst notes that Churchill Downs is "almost always expensive, but rarely goes 'on sale'." He also highlights its "quality management team," trophy assets, and pipeline of investments. Andress started coverage of Penn National with a Sector Weight rating. While he sees a more promising OSB/iGaming future via Barstool, he believes the market is ascribing it "somewhat lofty assumptions" versus peers. Lastly, MGM Resorts was initiated with a Sector Weight rating. Andress acknowledges that he is waiting to see what happens with Entain, and is bullish on BetMGM prospects. However, Andress sees the equity as fairly valued at current levels.

Loop Capital analyst Daniel Adam took a more negative view of Penn National by downgrading the stock to Sell from Hold. The stock has outperformed over the past year with a rise of about 300% on investors' hope that the company can successfully capitalize on the growing online gaming opportunity in the U.S., but the magnitude is likely unwarranted, the analyst told investors in a research note. Adam further states that Penn's Barstool app is still only live in one state - Pennsylvania - where the company is losing share, adding that there are just "too many red flags" for a Hold rating.

NEW JERSEY FINISHES YEAR STRONG: The New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement reported that total gaming revenue for December was $312.9M, compared to $287.3M in December 2019, reflecting a 8.9% increase. Internet gaming win was $99.5M in December, compared to $49.3M in the prior period, reflecting an increase of 101.6%. Sports wagering gross revenue was $66.4M for the month. Casino win for December was $147.1M, decreasing 29.5% from the same month last year. During December, the casinos operated with certain restrictions due to COVID-19, the NJ DGE noted.

New Jersey’s 2020 handle of $6B, which was up 31% year-over-year, surpassed Nevada's record level in 2019 of $5.3B for overall sports betting, with gross gaming revenue of $399M, noted Craig-Hallum analyst Ryan Sigdahl. Even more impressive, according to Sigdahl, results in 2020 were greatly impacted by the cancellation and suspension of major sporting events. NJ sports betting handle fell 59% year-over-year between March and June but grew 72% between July and December following the resumption of leagues such as the MLB and NBA. The analyst also noted that iGaming and mobile sports betting ended the year strong as well, with online blackjack up 101% year-over-year and mobile gross gaming revenue making up 92% of all handle. The most action was seen at FanDuel's Meadowlands sportsbooks, with Resorts Digital and the MGM's Borgata Casino rounding out the top three. However, the potential launch of New York’s mobile sports betting market could result in New Jersey losing revenue to New York, he said.

GREAT LAKE STATE JUST DAYS AWAY FROM MOBILE: WXYZ Detroit reported that Michigan is potentially just days away from an online sports betting roll out. The Michigan Gaming Control Board said it intends to announce a date for online sports betting to go live at any time then platforms will have a few days of testing before officially rolling out. “We could see a live launch next week," Richard Kalm, the executive director of the MGCB, commented. Sportsbooks that already have licenses in Michigan include:

  • Penn National's Barstool Sportsbook
  • BetMGM (MGM)
  • BetRivers
  • Churchill Downs' BetAmerica
  • DraftKings Sportsbook
  • FanDuel Sportsbook
  • FOX Bet
  • Gan Limited (GAN)
  • Golden Nugget
  • Kambi
  • Parx
  • PointsBet
  • Scientific Games
  • Caesars' William Hill
  • WYNNBet


PUBLICLY TRADED COMPANIES IN THE SPACE INCLUDE: Bally's (BALY), Boyd Gaming (BYD), Caesars (CZR), Churchill Downs (CHDN), DraftKings (DKNG), Flutter Entertainment (PDYPY), Gan Limited (GAN), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), MGM Resorts (MGM), Penn National (PENN), Rush Street Interactive (RSI), Scientific Games (SGMS) William Hill (WIMHY) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN).

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